My Election Predictions

With 11 days left until the 2008 General Election, I thought now would be a good time to get my predictions out. I usually hesitate to do this kind of thing so I don’t end up jinxing anything, but the older I get the more I realize just how superstitious such an attitude is. The only way I can personally effect the outcome of this election is with my single ballot, and so I’ve decided to take the plunge and get my picks out there now. Some of these may be no brainers but at least I’ll be on record so I can see how I did after all is said and done. In no particular order they are:

• Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States. I predict He’ll end up with at least 320 electoral votes.

• Obama will win the contested states of North Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri.

• Obama will win the popular vote by at least 3%.

• John McCain will win Florida, Georgia and Virginia.

• John McCain will win West Virginia, but I think it will be much closer than polls indicate.

• Liddy Dole will defend her seat here in NC, but just barely.

• Pat McCrory will defeat Beverly Perdue for NC Governor.

• Al Franken will beat Sen. Norm Coleman in Minnesota.

• Senator Ted Stevens will lose in Alaska. Badly.

• Democrats will pick up a total of 4 seats in the Senate.

• Democrats will pick up a total of 32 seats in the House of Representatives, one of which will be the idiotic Republican Michele Bachmann of MN.

• When all is said and done, the VP choice of Sarah Palin by John McCain will be the overwhelming reason why McCain loses. I do think she’ll attempt to run again in 2012, we haven’t seen the last of her unfortunately.

• National election turnout will end up around 66%.

So what happens if I’m wrong about Obama winning? Will I move to Canada or Europe? Will I spiral into a deep depression and curl up into a ball for months? I might be angry for a while but I’ll live. This country survived eight years of George W. Bush, and it can survive at least 4 of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

In my heart of hearts, I firmly believe we are on the cusp of something historic. Millions of people will be casting their vote for the very first African American for President of the United States. Barack is a good man who has the temperament, wisdom and values to lead this awesome country. Will he make mistakes? Undoubtedly. Does he love his country? Without question. I have faith that he and Joe Biden will do what’s best for the American people to keep us safe, get our economy on the right path and do what they can to bring the red and the blue together once again. We’re ready to start healing and we’ve gotta lot of work to do. It all starts on November 4th, 2008.

UPDATE: An insightful post over at The Anonymous Liberal seems to echo my thoughts about Palin as the soon-to-be scapegoat for McCain’s upcoming defeat – “If McCain loses, the GOP will quickly descend into recriminations mode. Many conservatives who have been holding back thus far will unload their frustrations about Palin.” That about sums that up. He’s not as convinced about Palin’s chances in 2012. Only time can tell.


  1. My advice: buy earthquake insurance. ‘Cause if Obama does win NC, we’ll have some mighty tremors from old Jesse Helms spinning in his grave.

  2. Its too bad you don’t want to move to Europe, we’d have plenty of crummy politics here for you to blog about. Unfortunately we have no Barack Obama.

    But about surviving more of this … it depends on how you define surviving. 😉

  3. I have to admit that if Obama doesn’t win I may seriously consider Canada. I probably won’t do it, but I will surely think about it. I don’t live in a swing state which almost makes it frustrating that the only thing I can do is vote with my state and hope he wins.

  4. I just got my citizenship recently and i will be a First time Voter in this elections.
    I agree with you on lot of those things…here are the things i differ from you.

    1. Obama will win NC, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Missouri. but he will lose Indiana and Florida and Georgia.
    2. Dole will Lose NC.
    3. Dems will have around 57 seats in Senate
    4. I think more than 1 factor will contribute to his defeat.
    a. Palin ( Top of the list) ( 50%)
    b. Economy (30%)
    c. Bush (20%)
    d. No Real Message (10%)

    Palin will try her luck again, but i find it hard to imagine her beating the likes of Romney and co in future who are better candidates.

    Just my 2 cents.

  5. Hopefully Barack will surprise you, Seeking. I suspect he’ll work hard to earn the respect and admiration of those who distrust him for whatever reason. He deserves a chance and so does this country.

  6. I agree with your assessment of Barack Obama. I think we who vote for him are someday going to say proudly to our grandchildren,
    “He was our first black president and he was a good one at a time when we desperately needed a good one.”
    I will watch your predictions with interest and surely hope that, on November 4, we are all celebrating the end of a very tedious time and the beginning of a hopeful era.

  7. To paraphrase MLK, if Obama does become our 44th president, I hope we judge his Presidency successful not by the color of his skin, but the content of his character.

    I hope we are proud of him for the quality policies that he implemented for the benefit of all, and to the detriment of none. I sincerely hope that he is that rising tide that lifts all boats great and small that Reagan spoke of but didn’t quite achieve. I hope he can make us feel that we really are that Shining City on a Hill and not just a fortress of power. If he wins this election then he has earned a shot at greatness. Talk is cheap. It is by his deeds that we will know him.

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