Stage 3: Bargaining
Before last night’s debate, I had a vibrant discussion about the Presidential race with a close friend. I love talking politics, especially with people on the other side of the aisle. We were both enjoying the verbal sparring when my friend said something very telling. He said that he was starting to come to the realization that Obama would most likely win the election, and unless he somehow managed to screw up, Barack was riding a wave that would easily carry him into office. Then he said something which I think you’re going to be hearing a lot more over the next three weeks – “It’s okay though, I never liked McCain any how.”
This is the unspoken truth behind GOP supporters this year. From the very beginning, conservatives have had to put up or shut up with John McCain. I’ve said before that he’s never been a true hero of theirs. In the past, he would disagree with his party at the most inopportune times and throw a political monkey wrench into the works, seemingly just to spite the Malkins and Hannitys of the world. As a friend of mine on Twitter recently said, this year conservatives are not voting for McCain so much as they are voting against Obama.
So if the current polling keeps up, and Obama manages to pull away with this race, expect to hear much more of the “we never liked McCain” meme from the right. They will use it to console themselves and deflect criticism until a “real” conservative can run in 2012. You know, someone like another Bush.
UPDATE: Dave points to a handy post that highlights the five stages of loss conservatives are feeling over at FreeRepublic.com. This is political gold folks.
Actually, I’m actively working to stay in Denial until the returns come back on election night so I can jump directly to Acceptance of whatever the outcome may be and avoid the pain of Anger, Bargaining and Depression. 🙂
Don’t pull an ABC news on us and call the election early here. I should probably keep my mouth shut on this next one because fear of it will only serve to energize Obama’s campaign.
By a realistic measure, Obama is losing in the polls unless they are compensating for the Bradley effect. Check the electoral map at Real Clear Politics. The Bradley effect holds that black candidates poll 5 to 10% better than they actually do on election day when faced with a whiter candidate, and McCain is as white as they come. Even his goddamn hair is white. If this holds true, then McCain would probably win any swing states where the spread is 1-5% and he might actually get a couple of the states that are “leaning Obama”. This gives him victory in the electoral college.
If Obama knows what’s good for him, he can’t sit back and be boring “because he’s ahead”. He’s not. He needs to continue to bring his AAA game.
I am leaning toward McCain, but I do like to see a lively fight though and so I want to see Obama put the pedal to the medal.
If he just sits there smiling, McCain and Palin will continue to chip away at him with character attacks, amplifying the Bradley effect. They will stay within range in the polls or it will be a dead heat. And in a month there will be much gnashing of teeth and wailing of Democratic shubs and zuuls, I can tell you. They will want to be roasted in the depths of the Sloar.