Comments on: Stage 3: Bargaining http://gedblog.com/2008/10/08/stage-3-bargaining/ A day in the life of me. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 08:47:06 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Ben http://gedblog.com/2008/10/08/stage-3-bargaining/comment-page-1/#comment-5922 Ben Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:15:25 +0000 http://gedblog.com/?p=1060#comment-5922 Actually, I'm actively working to stay in Denial until the returns come back on election night so I can jump directly to Acceptance of whatever the outcome may be and avoid the pain of Anger, Bargaining and Depression. :) Don't pull an ABC news on us and call the election early here. I should probably keep my mouth shut on this next one because fear of it will only serve to energize Obama's campaign. By a realistic measure, Obama is losing in the polls unless they are compensating for the Bradley effect. Check the electoral map at Real Clear Politics. The Bradley effect holds that black candidates poll 5 to 10% better than they actually do on election day when faced with a whiter candidate, and McCain is as white as they come. Even his goddamn hair is white. If this holds true, then McCain would probably win any swing states where the spread is 1-5% and he might actually get a couple of the states that are "leaning Obama". This gives him victory in the electoral college. If Obama knows what's good for him, he can't sit back and be boring "because he's ahead". He's not. He needs to continue to bring his AAA game. I am leaning toward McCain, but I do like to see a lively fight though and so I want to see Obama put the pedal to the medal. If he just sits there smiling, McCain and Palin will continue to chip away at him with character attacks, amplifying the Bradley effect. They will stay within range in the polls or it will be a dead heat. And in a month there will be much gnashing of teeth and wailing of Democratic shubs and zuuls, I can tell you. They will want to be roasted in the depths of the Sloar. Actually, I’m actively working to stay in Denial until the returns come back on election night so I can jump directly to Acceptance of whatever the outcome may be and avoid the pain of Anger, Bargaining and Depression. :)

Don’t pull an ABC news on us and call the election early here. I should probably keep my mouth shut on this next one because fear of it will only serve to energize Obama’s campaign.

By a realistic measure, Obama is losing in the polls unless they are compensating for the Bradley effect. Check the electoral map at Real Clear Politics. The Bradley effect holds that black candidates poll 5 to 10% better than they actually do on election day when faced with a whiter candidate, and McCain is as white as they come. Even his goddamn hair is white. If this holds true, then McCain would probably win any swing states where the spread is 1-5% and he might actually get a couple of the states that are “leaning Obama”. This gives him victory in the electoral college.

If Obama knows what’s good for him, he can’t sit back and be boring “because he’s ahead”. He’s not. He needs to continue to bring his AAA game.

I am leaning toward McCain, but I do like to see a lively fight though and so I want to see Obama put the pedal to the medal.

If he just sits there smiling, McCain and Palin will continue to chip away at him with character attacks, amplifying the Bradley effect. They will stay within range in the polls or it will be a dead heat. And in a month there will be much gnashing of teeth and wailing of Democratic shubs and zuuls, I can tell you. They will want to be roasted in the depths of the Sloar.

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